Bitwise Finds No Impact of US Elections on Prices of Top 10 Cryptocurrencies

The head of Bitwise's European research division, Andre Dragosh, stated that the US elections do not have a significant impact on the prices of the ten largest crypto assets. An analysis of price dynamics and election outcome probabilities on Polymarket showed that the R² value for most coins was below 1%, indicating a lack of statistical significance. Two election scenarios were considered: Democratic control of the Senate and House of Representatives with a probability of 67%, and a divided Congress with a probability of 25%. The calculations were conducted from September 1, 2026, and were relevant as of October 21. The model predicted conditional prices for Bitcoin: $82,451 if Democrats win and $88,628 if Congress is divided. For Ethereum, the changes were minus 5.2% and plus 14.6%, respectively. However, Dragosh emphasized that this data is unreliable and the crypto market reacts to other factors.

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