Goldman Sachs: Retail Trading Activity in U.S. Stocks Drops 45%, Stock Supply May Reach 26-Year High in 2027

Goldman Sachs data shows that retail trading activity in U.S. stocks has decreased by about 45% since the end of 2025, with the share of retail trading in total U.S. stock trading volume falling from 15% to about 9%, nearing the lowest level since 2020. Goldman Sachs believes that rising energy prices, weak consumer confidence, and higher U.S. Treasury yields have weakened retail investors' willingness to buy. Despite the cooling enthusiasm for short-term trading, U.S. households still net bought about $840 billion in U.S. stocks in the first half of the year, with stock mutual funds and ETFs attracting about $350 billion in inflows this year. Household stock assets are highly concentrated, with the wealthiest 10% of households holding about 87% of household stock assets. Goldman Sachs warns that the U.S. stock market faces supply pressures. In the first half of 2026, U.S. listed and unlisted companies are expected to net issue about 175 billion shares, and it is anticipated that net supply in the U.S. public stock market in 2027 may reach the highest level since 2000. With hedge funds reducing positions and corporate equity supply increasing, Goldman Sachs believes that whether U.S. households can continue to buy stocks will be key to the market's ability to absorb the new supply. The firm's baseline forecast suggests that if the job market remains stable and bond yields moderate, household demand for stocks is expected to remain robust.